This article was written by our amazing Community Member G0rdo. Go give him a follow on Twitter!
What Is This?
The list, why it’s valuable, and how it’s made
The What: This list ranks all 100 players by the individual value that they bring to a fantasy roster, or, more specifically, by the difference between their projected fantasy Points Per Game (PPG) and the average PPG at their position. Bold lines represent “tier breaks” where the difference between the players above and below the lines are more than double the average difference between consecutively ranked players at the position. Players written in red are unreliable as starters, and should be drafted with caution.
The Why: So why rank players by this metric? Because ranking players by a stat like regular PPG doesn’t tell the entire story. It doesn’t take into account their current team strength in a game where the largest factor in points scored is whether you win or lose. It also doesn’t take into account the discrepancy in points scored by the various positions. While bot laners are the highest scorers, that doesn’t make them inherently more valuable. A team with a bot laner scoring 20 points and a support scoring 13 is better off than a team with a bot laner scoring 21 and a support scoring 10. What matters isn’t how many points a player scores in a vacuum, it’s how much they score compared to their peers. The exception to this rule is the flex/util position, where higher scoring (IE Bot/Mid) players are flat out more valuable, as a player of any position can fill the role.
The How: This list was started by calculating Points Per Win (PPW) and Points Per Loss (PPL) for both Spring 2020* and Summer 2020 thus far**. These are then combined in Hybrid PPW and PPL stats (I like to give Summer stats 25% more weight per week, so it was 25% Summer/75% Spring in week 1, is now 50% Summer for week 2, and by week 4 I will be using entirely Summer data). These PPW and PPL stats are then used to estimate average points per game for the entire split, using my own power rankings of the teams (provided below). All of the game data used in creating this list was obtained from OraclesElixir.com.
*Players with no available stats for Spring instead use the stats of the player they are replacing (Kryze/Expect, Special/Mickey, etc.). Players who were subbed in after the split has started continue to use the stats of the player they are replacing (MasH/Wildturtle).
**Points are calculated using Draftbuff’s default scoring system, no multikill bonuses
Perkz is in a tier of his own
The first edition of this list, made before the split started, had every G2 member as a standout player in their own tier, and how could they not be? With each player having some of the highest PPW at their position, and with G2 being the standout best team in Europe, it was clear that the difference between these 5 and the rest of the competition, from a fantasy perspective, was huge. 5 games into LEC summer, and this is no longer the case. Even with summer numbers only influencing half of the hybrid stats used to make this list; the drop off has been so significant for some G2 players that 3 of them aren’t even in the top 5. The exception to this rule is, of course, Perkz. The bot lane position for G2 scores so much more than every other player in fantasy, it’s absolutely ridiculous. Perkz has been showing some signs of slowing down this split, with relatively unimpressive stats for summer, but this is why we use hybrid PPG. G2’s massive PPW average at the position last split is still enough for Perkz to be a worthy #1 draft pick, and I would wager he’ll certainly be near the top of the fantasy MVP standings by the end of the split.
MikyX’s decline and Kaiser’s monkey business
When the first version of this list was released, MikyX and Perkz were neck and neck at the top of the standings, with MikyX barely scraping into 1st. 2 weeks in, and MikyX is all the way down to #6. He, like Perkz, just has not kept up the insane PPW averages that made him the fantasy MVP in spring. In fact, they’re down to less than half of what they were previously. Someone who is putting up some insane PPW averages at the support position, however, is Kaiser, who has skyrocketed all the way from #18 in the preseason to #7 after week 2. The largest contributors to this are actually a 29 point Yuumi game and a 31 point Bard game, but what makes me the most excited going forward is his 2 farming Wukong games. Even setting aside the difficult-to-calculate-but-definitely-still-there higher potential for kills, just getting 200+ CS per game is a 4 point advantage that supports playing this strategy have over other fantasy supports. The potential for supports to put up huge numbers when paired with fasting Senna is greatly increased, and MAD Lions are the only team in either region that seem to be regularly using the strategy. I’ll be keeping a close eye on Kaiser, as he has the potential to be a real difference maker as this split goes on.
Jungle diff matters, Top not so much
Top lane has a pretty sizeable A-tier, with a pretty linear progression from Wunder’s 26.38 PPG to Kumo’s 17.78, with no player having more than a 1-2 pt advantage over the next. The closest thing to an exception is Alphari, who is a moderate 2.01 PPG ahead of Bwipo. Wunder was in a tier of his own coming into the split, but poor scores, even in wins, this split have dethroned him, as the rest have remained mostly static and replaceable. Meanwhile, in jungle, we see the opposite. Blaber and Santorin are firmly at the top with 30.71 and 29.46 PPG apiece, with Jankos and Shadow not far behind at 27.46 and 27.23 respectively. After Shadow, we get a huge drop off to 24.46 with Selfmade and an even bigger drop off to 20.85 with Spica. The conclusion here is that strength in the jungle position is hugely variable, with only the top 7 junglers even scoring above average for the position. This should make locking down a strong, reliable jungler a top priority for any competitive fantasy team.
Finally, check out here if you want to know the data behind this article!
That’s all for today, thanks to anyone that’s read this far! If you have any questions or feedback, hit me up on Twitter at @LoL_G0RDO. The current plan is to update these rankings every 2 weeks, so check back in after week 4 for another IPR!