Towards the Finish Line: (Continuing) Using Data and Analysis to Create the Perfect Overwatch Fantasy Team

This article was written by @dhulky who hosts the Fantasy Overwatch Underground Podcast, go give him a follow!

After the amazing finale that was the Summer Showdown and from taking a week off, we are back to the same old, but this week brings some new twists and turns that make this week an interesting one to navigate – An Episode 1, Season 2 if you will. Here’s two huge changes to consider this “season”:

  • Patch Notes: Brig is getting a solid dose of the nerf bat/flail. With repair packs no longer granting additional armor health pool, you can bet on her having a drastic reduction in play time. Less significant are a slight nerf to Ashe and a solid buff to D.VA.
  • Hero bans are Mei, Widowmaker, Orisa, and Ana

Before jumping straight to matchups and cheap players, let’s take a look at three interesting sets of charts. I will always recommend you study them and draw your own conclusions before you read my suggestions because

  1. Your team is yours. Start who you want to start and have fun with it.
  2. Sometimes I give you bad advice. You might be smarter than me.

First, the hero rates of fantasy scoring by hero class are listed to get an idea of which heroes scored the best/worst during the Summer Showdown. This takes into account all individual players on the hero, taking an average of anyone and everyone playing the hero, whether it was Carpe or Linkzr, etc.

Second, the individual player scoring rates this past week during the Summer showdown:

Third, Orisa has been out of hero pools only two other times this year. In weeks 12 and weeks 15 we saw the following hero bans and hero play time:

Week 12 Bans: Echo, Tracer, Orisa, Moira

Week 15 Bans: Mei, Tracer, Orisa, Moira

Here are some broad conclusions based on what I’m seeing:

  • Look for cheaper DPS players to save on your Royale budgets. Genji is likely to be the highest scoring hero again this week but he will be slightly less powerful without Brig armor packs. On top of that, the chance that top hitscans play widowmaker always caps their fantasy value due to how poorly Widowmaker scores, but with Widow out of the hero pool, your top hitscan players have more value this week. I expect DPS players to score well this week across the board with a smaller gap between your “projectile” and “hitscan” or even your double projectile/hitscan compositions.
  • Expect some Reinhardt play and some Winston play, with certain teams favoring one over the other, but with hero pick being map dependent. The same can likely be said for Sigma/D.VA. What this means is we have a clean week for tank plays – where your budget allows, aim for offtanks. Unless you’re playing a specific matchup, MAKE those offtanks fit into your budget. Sigma and D.VA score better than Reinhardt and Winston, and you’re unlikely to see those offtanks play any main tank heroes this week.
  • Baptiste’s utility makes him a mainstay right now and I think it’s likely he is the constant this weekend on the support line. Lucio counters dragon blade well and supports Reinhardt very well making him a good fit, but it would not surprise me if we had appearances from other support heroes this week. Baptiste scores well, seems likely, and could be paired alongside lower scoring supports – be sure to lock in Baptiste players this week.

Matchup Grades

This segment focuses on which teams/matches are most likely to be closer and therefore, more likely to have longer matches and more maps. Always pick players in close matchups.

  • A
    • Outlaws vs. Fuel: On paper, this is your closest matchup of the week.
    • Gladiators (Titans): A softening Gladiators team could struggle with the Titans.
    • Justice (Defiant) – With the inspiring Genji play of Ttuba and a surging Toronto squad, this could be a very interesting matchup.
  • B
    • Mayhem (Reign) – The Reign have their first match in the post Babybay era, which will weaken the team. Expect Mayhem to come out on top, but a good 3-1 or possible 3-2 could happen.
    • Reign (Valiant and Mayhem) – With two solid matches this week, don’t expect Atlanta to have the highest or lowest scoring players this week.
  • C
    • Dynasty vs. Spark – A 3-0 either way would not surprise me, nor would a 3-2 banger. If you like to leave your fate to a dice roll, go for it.
    • Titans (Gladiators and Eternal) – A juicy matchup with the Gladiators is softened by a soaring Paris squad likely to rout Vancouver.
    • Defiant (Justice and Eternal) – See above with Titans. Replace Gladiators with Justice.
  • D
    • Charge vs. Spitfire – Remember the iconic Will Farrell line in Zoolander “That Eileen’s just so hot right now”? Mugatu is a wise man.
    • Valiant (Reign and Uprising) – Uprising are struggling, making it tough to get excited about any team playing them this week.
  • F
    • Shock (Uprising) – Especially the San Francisco Shock.
    • Hunters vs. Excelsior – New York isn’t struggling enough to make things interesting with Chengdu.
    • Eternal (Defiant and Titans) – Paris should have two sound victories for short matches / lower scores.
    • Uprising (Shock and Valiant) – Welcome back to the Boston Basement Dwellers. I hope to see them return to viability, but I need to see it to believe it now.

Value Players this week:

  • DPS
    • Ttuba Steal of the week. His price hasn’t caught up with his Genji performance in a week with a good matchup.
    • Edison – He tore it up last week and with the loss of Babybay, he’s that much more likely to lock in play time
  • Tank
    • Jjanu – Much like other Justice players, his price hasn’t caught up to an improving team with a good matchup.
    • Meko – It’s very hard to find value at offtank this week, but Meko consistently produces and he won’t break the bank.
  • Support
    • Rapel – The Rapel/Rawkus nightmare never ends, but with the Outlaws looking their best without Rawkus lately and Rapel being the standout Baptiste player for the team, I’m confident Rapel will deliver great value this week.
    • Dogman – Consistent Baptiste player for the Reign.